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Macroeconomic moderate slowdown

In Electronic Infomation Category: R | on November   1, 2010

21, National Bureau of Statistics released the first three quarter economic data. Statistical calculation, the first three quarters of gross domestic product reached 26.866 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 10.6%. September consumer prices rose 3.6%, chain 0.6%, or 23 months since the new record high.

Data revealed that two copies of information: on the one hand, Chinas economic growth rate gradually slowed down the basic trend stopped, and STP60NF06 datasheet and the growth rate basically stable at a high level; the other hand, continues the momentum of rising prices.

In this context, the central bank announced the increase of 19 1-year deposit and STP60NF06 price and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points. Most economists believe the central bank intended to control the accident rate hike may be rising inflation, the CPI data release 21 clearly confirmed the speculation.

This may indicate that the trend of soft landing of Chinas economy has been basically established, the central bank now needs to deal with rising inflation expectations. DS will

Bank Greater China chief economist Ma Jun said that this is a very important signal that a policy consensus has been reached - that is, the lower the GDP growth of tolerance, also indicated the Government to solve the problem of negative interest rates and STP60NF06 suppliers and use of interest rate policy to curb speculative demand for real estate determination.

Inflationary pressures State Statistical Bureau spokesman Sheng

to Win, said upstream and downstream prices of late effects of factors co-exist. Upstream factors, one international bulk product prices rose sharply on the domestic production would produce a certain pressure of imported inflation, and second, the rise in labor costs to a certain extent, there are some domestic prices of raw materials; downstream factors, one autumn harvest, second, the vast majority of industrial surplus and the third is the impact of hikes.

"Despite upward pressure on prices, inflation expectations properly managed if the latter, then the expected completion of this years macro-control objective remains that there is hope, there is possible." Sheng to Win said.

Sheng Laiyun analysis that 10% of the national economy over the year growth of prices to maintain the level of around 3% is possible, because the 1-9 month CPI rose 2.9%, such a state should be very not easy.

Present, Chinas CPI index in the BRIC countries (China, Russia, Pakistan, India) and relatively low and stable. This indicates that China this year, inflation expectations in the management of the measures taken is a powerful, effective, and it is properly. BRIC countries, Brazil in September CPI up 4.7%, Russia September CPI rose 7%, India August CPI rose 9.9%.

For macroeconomic data released by 21, CITIC Securities chief economist at the macro Jian-Fang Zhu said that compared with the previous forecast, GDP growth is only higher than expected, indicating that domestic demand increased, the overall economic performance is good. But inflation pressures will increase, expected in October to reach 3.8% -4% CPI.

Data show that the first three quarters, consumer prices rose 2.9% in September consumer prices rose 3.6%, or 23 months to new record high. Zhu Jian Fang Forecast October CPI rose at 3.8% -4%, inflationary pressures will increase. Policy control into the sound, the future will enter the interest rate cycle, inflation and interest rate trends to look again at the frequency judgments. Securities Institute of Great Britain

Lida Xiao also hold the same view. He believes that third quarter GDP growth is relatively stable, the overall economic situation is good to see, moving in the expected direction of macro regulation and control.

Lida Xiao pointed out that the third quarter compared with second quarter GDP chain has dropped slightly, mainly due to the introduction of austerity measures and the state energy conservation requirements, such as cancellation of some high energy consuming enterprises preferential rates, are expected in the fourth quarter GDP growth rate will remain stable, the economic situation towards the direction of national macro-control.

Although the September CPI hit a new high, but Lida Xiao said data or better than market expectations. Recently the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate, the future will be some inflationary pressures ease. As for the year will raise interest rates again, you also need a period of observation.

Reuters has published an article saying that the Chinese third quarter GDP grew 9.6%, slightly higher than market expectations. Although the industrial and investment growth is still in decline, but the trend of soft landing of Chinas economy has been basically established. September consumer price (CPI) inflation highlighted a new high, expected to strengthen the management of inflation expectations will become the focus of the next phase of the policy. The Chinese central bank before the publication of the data, or also shows a sudden interest rate increase, economic growth is not the most critical, early signs of inflation is more important to suppress.

Negative interest rate hike fight inflation settlement

10 19, Peoples Bank of China after a lapse of three years, announced the increase of 1-year deposit and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points. The industry believes that the swords point rate hike, inflation and asset price bubbles.

Prior to this, before a number of scholars in different occasions, proposals to raise the CPI measure of inflation expectations, raising inflation "tolerance." Secretary-General of China Society of Macroeconomics

Wang said, as long as inflation does not hurt growth, we need tolerance. He said that if Chinas potential economic growth boundary is 10%, the highest inflation can be tolerated is less than or equal to 10%.

Also known as the famous economist, Li Yining, from China in the near term, to maintain the economic growth rate of 9%, 3% inflation rate also as a warning line, will give the economy a lot of problems. Therefore, the rate of inflation should be mentioned that between 4% to 4.5%, "4.5% inflation rate as the warning line is, is society can bear."

This speech came out, it was immediately met with the community widely questioned. China Economic Times, pointed out that the so-called "community can bear", meaning, that ordinary people can afford the price increase, that is, inflation does not affect the daily life of ordinary people. That is to say, such as the 9% economic growth rate to 10%, and the people will be able to withstand 4.5 to 5 percent inflation rate.

Is not the case. If the economic growth rate of 9% to 10% of its revenue growth rate to reach 9% or more, flush the hands of the accumulation of currency depreciation, but does not affect this part of the standard of living. The real problem is that peoples income does not sync up, "only a thousand dollars for the monthly income, or even only a few hundred dollars for low-income urban populations, limited savings for retirement in the elderly, said that the price they can afford rise, is nothing short of standing up to speak did not know back pain. "

HSBC Greater China chief economist Qu Hongbin said the central bank to raise interest rates is to change the negative interest rate situation, to ensure that people of wealth do not shrink. And one-year deposit interest rate relative ratio, the current negative interest rate situation has lasted for 7 months, although the fourth quarter CPI is expected to meet with the top down, but the negative interest rates is likely to continue for some time. As negative interest rates are usually negatively correlated with real estate prices, and eroding the peoples income, increase the risk of asset bubbles.

Qu Hongbin, that change is clearly not the situation of negative interest rates once or twice by 25 basis points rate hike can change, she says, but that does not mean that China began to enter a continuous cycle of rate hikes. Mainly due to negative interest rates

continuing adjustment of monetary policy is just one of the factors to be considered. Future aggregate demand in the context of a moderate temperature, the output gap (actual and potential economic growth gap between the level of growth) narrowed, the demand side pull upward pressure on prices will gradually diminish, and from the supply side point of view, food, pigs meat and other major agricultural products are relatively stable, high consumer price index continued to lack a driving force.

Or enter a new round of interest rate channel

However, the central banks Monetary Policy Committee member Li Daokui hinted in an interview, the interest rate may be increased to equal to the CPI.

"The central bank to raise interest rates is to tell the market a message that the Government attaches great importance to inflation expectations, to change the real deposit interest rate is negative, real interest rates to fight for positive change in the orientation of such a policy." Daokui Lee said, through such a small rate increases to tell the market, so that the people money in the bank more stable state of mind, not in the short term this part of the funds invested in stocks or out into the real estate market.

Li Daokui analysis, the current series of macro data show that the gradual slowdown in Chinas economic growth momentum has largely stopped, that the growth rate basically stable at a relatively high level, at the same time, we price the momentum of rise but did not slow down, prices may be at a relatively high or relatively mild increase in such a situation, so to maintain stable and rapid economic growth and control of the dilemma between inflation expectations, the second difficulty is the difficulty of controlling rising inflation expectations The main aspects of the conflict, while economic growth is relatively speaking, down to the secondary side, in this case to adjust interest rates in order to better control, control inflation expectations, but also to strengthen the regulation and control policy for the intensity of the real estate series .

Tokushima Bank Greater China chief economist Jun Ma will then clear that the central bank rate hike is a new round of interest rate cycle begins in the next 12 months, and possibly two more rate hikes (per times by 25 basis points), deposit rate controls can pave the way to relax.

Ma believes that this is the right direction of monetary policy to an important change, that decision-making down to the tolerance of moderate economic growth rate is rising, and has been fully aware of the negative interest rates brought about by inflationary expectations, asset bubbles and the consequences of over-investment, and greater use of interest rate determination to carry out macro-control measures.

However, Chinas central bank to raise interest rates will widen between China and the United States spreads to attract hot money into market disruption.

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