The second half of the financial crisis fell recovery key semiconductor

Momentum beyond the expected mutation

International financial crisis on the impact of the global semiconductor industry, the industry there is a gradual process of cognition. Until the fourth quarter of 2008, the industry believes that the international financial crisis the industry is unlikely that the substantial decrease in sales. On the one hand, the global semiconductor output in 2007 increased by only 3.8%, so the kinetic energy of industrial decline is not enough; the other hand, the first three quarters of 2008 the development of semiconductor industry in a normal state, according to SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association) statistics, in 2008 1 May -9 months, the semiconductor industry reached 196.4 billion U.S. dollars total sales, an increase of 4%.

However, the fourth quarter of 2008, as the consumer confidence index fell, bringing a sudden drop in market demand, also contributed to the semiconductor industry sales are crashing. Monthly decline in chip sales, and AM79866AJC datasheet and the decline is increasing. For example, in October 2008 chip sales of 228 billion U.S. dollars, the 23 billion U.S. dollars in September decreased by 1%; November was 208 million, surpasses in October dropped by 9.6%; while December was 17.4 billion U.S. dollars , down 16.3% compared with November.

2009 semiconductor industry, the situation is worse than a foregone conclusion in 2008. The market research agencies have been their year for the industry in 2009 growth forecast set at -7.5% -20%, respectively. There are more pessimists, such as the industrys largest foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and AM79866AJC price and other predicted rate in 2009 fell 30% industry.

Over 14 million people laid off in general loss

Recent semiconductor news have been full of losses and AM79866AJC suppliers and layoffs, and even over the years have also announced big profit losses of messages. For example, Intel expects its first quarter 2009 revenue will decline to 70 billion U.S. dollars, gross margin decreased from the original 53% to 40%. Since 1986, Intels earnings report has never had a deficit. TSMCs chief executive officer (CEO) Rick Tsai predicted that its 2009 first quarter revenue fell by half over the previous quarter, gross margins declined from 45% to 1% to 5%, will be a loss. Memory giant Samsung also announced the companys first quarterly loss since its establishment, its 2008 fourth quarter net loss of approximately $ 16,160,000. With the loss

news, the major companies have also laid off. For example, 2 million layoffs NEC, STMicroelectronics laid off 4,500 people, IBM laid off 2,600 people, 1,800 job cuts Texas Instruments, Applied Materials cuts 1,800 people, TSMC (Shanghai) lay off 5% and so on. It is reported that as of now, the global semiconductor industry has laid off more than 14 million people. Increased integration of the results to be clear

In a grim situation, in order to survive or to develop faster, the industry has reached a consensus that integration is a good way. Chiang is currently brewing in the global semiconductor industry, integrating the two: one is the integration of the global storage industry, the other is the re-integration of the Japanese semiconductor industry.

Qimonda ultimately did not survive the plight of cash flow break, declared bankruptcy. The other two makers Elpida Memory and Micron memory system for Korean manufacturers Samsung and Hynix to compete and try and four storage plant for China Taiwan alliance. However, concern is China Taiwan Elpida and Micron Technology can bring it, so the results are not yet clear.

At the same time, the Japanese semiconductor industry consolidation is under way again. Japanese semiconductor industry in the 20th century have set brilliant record in 80 years, accounting for 70% market share. Now passed their prime, dying. The late 20th century, 90 were Japanese semiconductor industry restructuring, the birth of Renesas and Elpida, but the integration did not change the tide. Impact of the recent international financial crisis, Toshiba, NEC and other enterprises have been huge losses, once again re-initiation of the idea. However the trade are on the sidelines, that little chance of success.

Integration may succeed or may fail. Integration is not simply added together, the key is formed by integrating the enterprise more competitive. So sum up, at least with the successful integration of three conditions: clear goals, excellence in leadership and adequate financial support.

On behalf of the industrial equipment industry, poor weight loss

From the present situation, on behalf of the industrial situation in the worst affected and most direct. Such as TSMC capacity utilization below 50%, and forecast second quarter of 2009 will be more poor. Chartered fourth quarter of 2008 capacity utilization was 59%, 81% over the same period in 2007, third quarter of 2008 was 85%. Looking ahead, the outlook is more difficult. First quarter of 2009 capacity utilization will fall to about 37%. In summary, the global foundry industry is facing the biggest problem is lack of orders, capacity utilization below 50%, if this situation continues, no one can survive.

At the same time, semiconductor equipment manufacturers the most strongly affected, suffered most. According to market research firm Gartner, the global semiconductor industry in 2007, fixed assets investment 592 million U.S. dollars, down 27.3% in 2008, 490 million, while in 2009 than in 2008, will again come down 34.1% to 32.3 billion.

While investment in fixed assets of the semiconductor structure, usually 70% to 80% for the purchase of equipment, so the decline in investment in the equipment industry will be the first order effect.

The industry for each device companies have different expectations. For example, the number one application materials companies still stand out, the next few quarters could maintain profitability; Technical Inspection maker KLA-Tencor may first loss in 15 years; dry etching giant Lamresearch large quantities have been invisible orders; and best reflects the industrial prospects of ASML lithography machines manufacturers greatly reduced orders, sales are expected fourth quarter of 2008 was 4.94 billion euros in 2007 compared to 995 million euros the same period fell by half, is expected to 2009 sales in the first quarter was only 1.8 billion -2.0 billion euros the previous quarter and then fell by half.

Market research firm VLSI latest forecast, in 2008 the global semiconductor equipment sales was 311 billion U.S. dollars, down 25% in 2007, while sales in 2009 than in 2008 by as much as 49%.

2009 The outlook remains uncertain hope

According to SIAs latest data, the global semiconductor industry in 2008 will decline 2.8%, to 248.6 billion U.S. dollars, in 2009 the semiconductor industry weakness is a foregone conclusion.

Reuters predicts that the global mobile phone sales in 2009 fell 9%, PC (personal computer) sales fell 10%, 40% of semiconductor sales may decline, semiconductor equipment sales could fall 50% -80%. Back many of the companys sales of at least 10 years.

Can be seen from this analysis, the current pessimism temporarily gain the upper hand, but the international financial crisis is a double edged sword, has been plagued by overcapacity in the market is expected to be improved, the most obvious may be the memory market and OEM market. DRAM manufacturers have recently cut prices due to have been signs of recovery, but in recent years due to global OEM total investment less than normal, the future may appear tight capacity situation.

Whether the recovery in the semiconductor industry, the key to see the second half of this year. The memory price rebound is the benchmark continuous. As ICInsight president BillMcClean saying, that the history of every recession, the boom will be followed by the arrival. He predicted that after 2010 the semiconductor industry will be more brilliant.