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Node switching costs to upgrade Moores Law was broken in 2014

In Electronic Infomation Category: R | on July   10, 2011

Moores Law as the basis of semiconductor development scale, there are already 40 years old, but according to market research firm iSuppli expects this law will face the end of 2014, because the cost of chip manufacturing equipment obviously does not apply to smaller than 18 nm process mass production equipment.

Technology breakthrough with the 18-20 nm node, the rising cost of chip manufacturing equipment, making Moores Law in the laboratory and SN75110AN datasheet and in front of the entire semiconductor industry based economic failure.

ISuppli semiconductor manufacturing research director Len Jelinek said in a statement, "In these nodes, the (semiconductor) industry will amount to the beginning of a semiconductor manufacturing tool that is not too expensive for the mass production stage, because cost is too high, the application of little value. "

Moores Law, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore made as early as 1965, he predicted that the number of transistors on a semiconductor integrated double every two years. The semiconductor industry forecast in the subsequent technological innovation, and SN75110AN price and pointed out the direction of technology development process fine.

However, recent trends indicate that this process has slowed down the pace of evolution. Although Moores Moores Law

What started as a prophecy, as the semiconductor industry, Moores Law has become the benchmark for chip makers, industry-wide R & D are looking forward to keep pace with Moores Law pace of development.

But also on the Moores Law long history of failure. For example, in April of this year, IBM researchers at the International Symposium on Physical Design, said to the audience, Moores Law has gradually been eliminated, only a few of todays high-end chip manufacturers can afford the next generation of chip design requirements, such plants are built even fewer. Many observers believe that the basis of technical challenges and SN75110AN suppliers and the physical limits of Moores Law will end.

Specific technology node will gradually decline in revenue brought about, it is because there are always the latest technology node to meet more demand. However, with the new rising cost of manufacturing equipment, iSuppli forecasts that semiconductor technology will have more time to achieve income generation.

Jelinek said, "The semiconductor industry revenue cycle technology will be extended as never before, you may not see the size increase or reduction of these processes, but has been maintained."

Despite 90-nanometer process in 2007 reached the highest point achieved revenue fell quickly after, iSuppli believes that the updated 65-nm process will still be many years in the future become a major revenue source.

ISuppli also said the slowdown in technology updates, means that the semiconductor industry into technology-driven economic-driven, and chip makers try to find the technology in addition to pursuing economic growth outside.

Jelinek said, "Historically, the semiconductor is how to quickly shift the focus to the next process node, and the question now revolves around how the existing nodes continue to make money."

Semiconductor manufacturers through the use of 3D structure to continue to use existing technology, the so-called 3D structure is to allow more transistors packaged in a single device.

Article release, EETimes readers that, in certain applications, will continue to play an important role in fine craft. The following is a readers point of view.


To editors:

On this "ISuppli company expects to convert the cost of the node after the end of 2014, Moores Law" article, and its forecast for consumer and commercial products and industrial products is true. But may also lead the industry executives gathered to discuss how the future will be fine for a specific application process and make appropriate investment strategy.

Imagine medical devices. Swallowing a tiny camera to capture images of patients throughout the intestinal tract, which currently have a very mature technology.

Then this device is also used for other organs? How to use the robot for heart surgery or liver repair?

Whether you can use smaller or more dense chips?

In space exploration, they look like? Will send a large payload into space, the cost is enormous. Why not reduce the probe it?

Three pounds if the load can be integrated in a small chip, and with multiple sensors, cameras, radio transceiver, and a few batteries it?

This way costs may be in the thousands of dollars, not millions of dollars.

Talk about oil drilling in underground technology. Assigned to the robot to the scene to look like? Why is the oil reservoir to be left out? Perhaps some of this detection is in need of intensive chips. There are undersea exploration.

Brainstorming in many fields will be more interesting, rather than blindly turning point in the discussion when the economy comes.

Laurence Marks, IBM Project Manager

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